I am not able to answer this question. For that, I would need to be a super expert in statistics and probabilities.
Be needless to say that I would have to make a lot of assumptions.
What I can tell you is that the probability is much higher as you can think at first.
Last year I travelled from Zurich to Milan. The train had several problems and we had to transfer twice. During the last transfer, I met one guy from Basel who was going to meet some friends in Verona. We were talking (with 1 more guy) for a while and he explained to me how to take the last train to get my destiny.
Well, last Saturday I took a train with direction to Luzern. But I had to get off earlier. I sat on a free seat and when I looked at the guy in front of me, his face was familiar. After some seconds, I remembered him and I asked him if he took a train to Milan with many problems last year. He laughed a little bit and he started to remember me too.
2 people. Absolutely nothing in common... OK, just the train... meeting in one train that I rarely take and never at that time...
We did not exchange numbers, emails or whatever. We just said goodbye with: "until next time!".
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